Monday, August 16, 2010

Floods of Ladakh::A geological phenomenon...DR RTESH ARYA

Subject: Floods of Ladakh::A geological phenomenon...DR RTESH ARYA

Floods in the zero hours of 6th August 2010 in and around Leh town was more a geological phenomenon and the devastation caused was the result of MAN MADE construction in the geologically unfavorable environment


The theory of cloud burst does not exists............?????

Heavy rain coupled with simple landslides which blocked the main channels to form a wall actually resulted in the formation of wall resulting in the formation of water reservoir. This wall ruptured on 6th August causing the floods in Leh. The devastation was so strong that 12-15 feet debris was deposited in less then 5 minutes and people were sinking in this thick mud debris in Choglamsar .

The impact could have been minimum if the paleo channel of the streams channels not blocked by the habitation.

Traditional wisdom of the ancestors does play important role is identifying the boundaries of the floods plains and Manay walls constructed more then 500 years ago prevented the habitations from these floods. But the geologiclal significance of these walls was lost in course of time and religious importance made these  thick walls week in due course of time. Much of devastation in effected areas was prevented where the MANAY  walls were intact

The case study of Shakhsi linpo Nala/stream and Sabo conducted by Dr Ritesh Arya with his French students Marion and Erwan clearly establishes the phenomenon to be geological in nature INDUCED due to blockage of the ancient glacio fluvial channels  by landslides. This  resulted in formation of reservoir which ruptured causing flash floods in its original course and destroying the habitations which were constructed on the glacio fluvial channel. This actually caused the havoc and devastation on 6th August 2010 which resulted in more 200 deaths and majority missing besides resulting in loss of property which fell on these ancient channels.

PROCESS WAS NATURAL BUT THE DEVASTATION WAS DUE TO MAN MADE ACTIVITIES which ignored the simple geological processes FOR BUILDING HABITATIONS

No evidence of phenomenon like cloud burst was formed when the tops of Sabu and Skampari Nala were scaled by Dr Arya and his team.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

GLOBAL WARMING SIMPLIFIED for policy makers


1. Global warming is 100% natural .                                                     (global warming follows cooling & vice versa)

2. Man creates pollution and GHGs .                 (Pollution  is 100% man made  but it can be 100%natural (volcanoes)

3. No established scientific link between warming & GHGs

4. Global warming  always follow cooling and cycle should be studied and understood in totality.

5. Global warming and cooling are like day and night   but with longer durations say approx 1167 years for one cycle

6. Transition from warming to cooling is like dawn and dusk.

7. Even if  all GHGs are removed global warming will  happen

8.  Even if global average temperatures rises to  maximum levels 
                                                       and
       maximum GHG levels are reached 
                                                       still 
       GLOBAL COOLING will happen

9. This clearly shows 
Global warming and cooling are independent of increased GHGs and temperature rise 

10. Stop playing carbon games and  built sustainable habitats in geologically sound locations

What does warming really means.....????
It really means 
more glacier melt, more water and  more floods in mountains and inter mountain valley regions 
and 
more cyclones/hurricanes in coastal areas............

What can  be done by the govts........?????? 
Built sustainable habitats in geologically sound locations 

Prepare geological maps and identify the flood prone and cyclone affected areas 

 Does it mean that all habitations in disastrous zones need to be rehabilitated.......????
If possible yes or it should be left to the individuals but they should know that  their habitations is susceptible to flooding / cyclones. 

Sunday, February 7, 2010

Price of MAN MADE GLOBAL WARMING (propagated by UNIPCC and compilation of distorted facts in form of INCONVENIENT TRUTH by Al Gore) is already being paid by us in terms of CARBON credits which is a flourishing business for few who have created it, to promote directionless policies of UNIPCC to combat warming.


Shadow of global warming is looming large on the world but if we move in the INCONVENIENT DIRECTION then we will be the real sufferers........IN FUTURE OUR GENERATIONS WILL SUFFER BECAUSE they will have no clue to combat warming in real sense courtesy UNIPCC. 
OUR GRAND CHILDREN WILL BE BUSY PLAYING THE CARBON CREDIT GAME AND IMPROVING TECHNOLOGY TO HARNESS RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES........ WHERAS  A SIMPLE FLOOD WOULD WASH THIER FELLOWS....AND destroy THIER INSTITUTES OF TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT FOR RENEWABLE RESOURCES to ground IN FRACTION OF A SECOND.
.
WARMING IS NOT GAME (CARBON GAME to reduce carbon footprints or pollution neither it is a TECHNOLOGY GAME to improve the sustainable renewable energy sources), GLOBAL WARMING IS A REALITY WE AND OUR FUTURE GENERATIONS HAVE TO LIVE WITH.


EVEN IF THESE IMAGINATIVE FIGURES OF CARBON AND GHG REDUCTIONS (propagated by UNIPCC by different ways using better technology to tap renewable energy resources... in lieu of fossil fuels....) are achieved still NOBODY CAN SAVE THE GENERATIONS FROM THE WRATHS OF WARMING BECAUSE WARMING IS natural and HERE TO STAY.


What does that mean we cannot do anything or take any action?     YES, WE CAN AND THERE IS URGENT NEED TO TAKE ACTION........RIGHT NOW, BUT ACTION IN THE RIGHT and CONVENIENT DIRECTION.


FIRST DIFFERENTIATE ..............               POLLUTION,TECHNOLOGY FOR SUSTAINABLE ENERGY                .                                 FROM WARMING                 
     POLLUTION AND TECHNOLOGY  ARE MAN MADE                                           .                                           WHEREAS                                                                                                             .                     GLOBAL WARMING IS NATURAL.....


Better technologies can help us to reduce pollution and tap renewable energy resources in better way but again  what is the guarantee that the awarded technologies of today are not polluting technologies of tomorrow.


Will moving in  INCONVENIENT direction really solve the problem and challenges our earth and human beings are facing now.


Lets again try to simply things ABOUT WARMING
GLOBAL WARMING MEANS MORE WATER IN THE SYSTEM DUE TO MELTING OF GLACIER......
MORE WATER MEANS MORE LIFE AND DIVERSITY OF LIFE ON EARTH
MORE WATER ALSO MEANS MORE FLOODING, CYCLONES, SEA LEVEL RISE AND LAND SUBMERGENCE
IT ALSO MEANS MORE TRANSPORTATION OF SEDIMENTS DEPOSITED DURING GLOBAL COOLING TIMES INTO THE OCEANS


So what is CONVENIENT TRUTH or method to ENJOY or combat warming?
CONVENIENT TRUTH IS SIMPLE ................................................ FIND SUSTAINABLE HABITATS IN GEOLOGICALLY SOUND LOCATIONS TO COMBAT, SORRY ENJOY THE EFFECTS OF WARMING (FLOODS,CYCLONES,LAND SUBMERGENCE) THIS IS THE REALITY BY WHICH WE CAN SAVE OUR FELLOW BEINGS NOW AND HELP GUIDE OUR FUTURE GENERATIONS TO LIVE HAPPILY WITH WARMING IN NEAR FUTURE
RUNNING AFTER GEOLOGICALLY STABLE SITES AND NOT GHGs OR CO2 CAN HELP TO LIVE IN HARMONY WITH WARMING AND SOLVE THE PROBLEM


time to rethink ...global warming.......
its natural we have to enjoy warming and live with it happily....

Saturday, February 6, 2010

Dr Ritesh Arya letter to PM Shri Manmohan Singh on GLOBAL WARMING


We all know that glaciers are melting,floods are part of day, sea level rise and land submergence will be the order of day all induced due to warming but the way it was being projected by IPCC under chair of Pachuari really is questionable because it seems IPCC or for that matter anybody it seems have no clue about what they were saying about warming.
We need better technologies to curb pollution and alternate energy to reduce dependence on fossil fuels there is nothing wrong in all the statements but there is lot of doubt when global warming is related to man made activities. or increased temperatures or GHGs.
Global warming is just a natural phenomenon and man actually has no role to influence the warming process

I was really disappointed that the honest govt like yours is supporting Manipulator of global warming processes


Secondly inspite of the fact that we have invented the best technologies to curb pollution and increased our dependency from fossil fuel at present to alternate sources of energy to reduce our carbon footprints and also help us to increase the carbon credits and play the carbon credit games properly still we and our civilisations will be washed because of the simple flash flood activities or a simple cyclone,  as our future generations will be busy playing the carbon credit games. Which IPCC is projecting as a means to curb pollution reduce green house gases and check the impacts of  global warming processes.

Time has come to rethink global warming and understand the concept in totality away from playing gimmicks and handling the concept ideologically correctly.

Simple solution to handle global warming process is to build sustainable habitats in geologically sound locations.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Scientists (do not) Agree That Humans Cause Global Warming: Dr Ritesh Arya


Scientists Agree That Humans Cause Global Warming

The entire community comes to see the reasons for climate change




Instead of continuing to survey the general population on the causes of global warming, researcher Peter Doran, an associate professor of earth and environmental sciences at the University of Illinois in Chicago, working with Maggie Kendall Zimmerman, a former graduate student, asked over 10,200 experts from all around the world to answer a few global warming-related questions for him, in an online questionnaire. The conclusions weren't surprising at all – more than 90 percent of the 3,146 respondents agreed that mean temperatures went up compared to 1800 levels, while 82 said that humans were largely responsible for this occurrence.
The online questionnaire could only be accessed via invitation, and only experts were invited to 


participate. The researchers sent e-mails to research labs, private companies, and governmental research centers from around the world. They got the list of names from the 2007 issue of the American Geological Institute's Directory of Geoscience Departments.

However, the survey did yield some interesting results. Petroleum geologists and meteorologists were among those doubting human influence on the environment, rating at 47 and 64 percent, respectively. And while in the case of geologists handling oil was the clear reason why they responded the way they did, the researchers were very amazed to find that meteorologists doubted human influence as well.

“The petroleum geologist response is not too surprising, but the meteorologists' is very interesting. Most members of the public think meteorologists know climate, but most of them actually study very short-term phenomenon (sic),” Doran said.

He added that more than 97 percent of climatologists that had answered the survey believed that the human factor was the most important one in global warming and in climate change. “They're the ones who study and publish on climate science. So I guess the take-home message is, the more you know about the field of climate science, the more you're likely to believe in global warming and humankind's contribution to it,” the lead researcher concluded.






Comment #1 by: ritesh arya on 21 Jan 2009, 12:27 GMT
                                     Global warming is natural: Enjoy it


If global warming is man made then how would one explain the cooling in near future.
Articles in nature should reflect the scientific opinion and not be based on surveys and political/ business statements.
Al Gore in his inconvienient truth tried to highlight the warming by experimenting with the frog as a scientist we are in age of Homo sapiens and how amphibians respond to the climate changes is entirely different from the human response.

Global warming and colling are cyclic processes global warming leads to melting of glaciers flodding cyclones increased sea level rise but imagine what would cooling lead to how many of us including UN IPCC memebers would love to live in Antarctica or Arctic Neither biotic(Man or his activities) nor abiotic( geological factors like earthquakes,volcanoes etc ) can have any impact on sustaianble basis on warming or cooling they are bound to happen iresspective of what man does.

Pollution is man made but global warming is natural we can control polution but not warming



         Comment #1.1 by: Tudor Vieru on 21 Jan 2009, 13:23 GMT
You don't have a clue what you're talking about.
Your statements are so fundamentally wrong, and denote a kinder-garden mentality.
But if you'd rather stick your head in the sand, that's fine by me.
Just don't try to convince any people that what you're saying is true.
Luckily, people are starting to see the truth, and no longer fall for stunts like the one you just pulled.


Comment #2 by: ritesh arya on 27 Sep 2009, 17:12 GMT


Dear Tudor
I am happy you published my views ....
what you are saying to me applies to you also.....and your thoughts also....
and many others who are participating......in this research......

we may have different conclusions but observations and data has to be good and recorded properly....

there is great confusion in which data is collected and manipulated polluted by IPCC (international Pollution creating committee) and how and on what basis are they holding GHGs CO2 etc to enhance the global warming natural cycles where as till date no formula has been worked out to establish their direct relationship.. Its all imagination and no truths........

And we want to take action on these imaginative conclusions....

There is relationship well established between Pollution and technologies....
pollution is man made.....Awarded patented technologies of past are polluting technologies of today

but global warming is part of natural cyclic process..like day and night....
floods,cyclones,sea level rise,glacial melt.....are inevitable...but they will happen when their time comes.......and man has no role over it to control over it. Neither enhance it or reduce it.
Best thing is we can Enjoy it by building sustainable habitat in geologically sound lovations

Pollution is man made and can be controlled.....

i will love to end this by modifying the old proverb
"GOD GIVE ME POWER TO CHANGE THINGS I CAN ( POLLUTION & BETTER TECHNOLOGIES) AND ACCEPT THINGS I CANNOT CHANGE (GLOBAL WARMING& NATURAL CYCLE): WISDOM/ SERENITY TO KNOW THE DIFFERENCE "
Old Proverb Modified by Dr Ritesh Arya to sum up global warming

I leave the judgement on the people wise enough to see the truth,and no longer fall for stunts and fictitious datas generated by IPCC and likes
to make billions instead of suggesting right solutions in right direction so that our brothers and sisters susceptible to these natural calamities can live harmoniously with these forces of global warming by building habitats in geologically stable locations instead of recreational habitats build for
economic considerations only



Comment #3 by: Tudor Vieru on 30 Sep 2009, 13:28 GMT
You must now be thinking "Thank God for the IPCC, otherwise I wouldn't have had anyone to blame the 'global warming conspiracy on'". There are sufficient people like you out there, unfortunately. I don't know about you personally, but most of the others are either oblivious to their impact on the environment, or simply play the agenda of large fossil fuel companies. These companies have been proven countless times over to influence lobby group, by paying them dirty money to argue for oil and coal in front of national governments.

The type of mentality you are sporting is dangerous for two reasons. One, you believe that there is a higher force that dictates the cycles, and that has created everything. Secondly, you feel like humans cannot influence nature sufficiently enough to make a difference in its natural cycles. You gracefully ignore countless studies linking CO2 and methane to global warming and climate change. You ignore long-term measurements showing how the natural trends are all but gone from what's happening now. I suggest you pick up some books and remedy that.

of course, the IPCC is wrong and you are right, you and whatever obscure site entitle truth about(insertwhatevernamehere)dot org. The IPCC does not conduct studies in itself. There are research groups from around the world that compile the reports, each of them laden with details from their respective countries of origin. How you can simply ignore all that is beyond me. You keep such an aerial set of arguments, that one doesn't even know where to start to argue against them. And that is your line of thought's biggest advantage and flow - it's so general that it would make any intelligent person laugh first off. These arguments only influence those who are weak-minded, and susceptible to believing this type of cheap propaganda



Comment #4 by: ritesh arya on 20 Nov 2009, 02:59 GMT
Dear Tudor
Whatever you have written applies to you and people like you also

who believe
"Man can create.........."

Yes there is no denying fact that god or you may call it natural processes operate in Nature

Man is creation of one of these Natural Cycles and is not responsible for creating these Natural cycles
and you don't require funds to understand this simple logic

The type of mentality you are supporting is very dangerous for two reasons also
1. There is no established relationship between GHGs or now CO2 increase with temperatures...some people want create panic and want to jump on conclusions
and PLAY GAMES........
This time it is CARBON CREDITS game

I ask simple question
"WHERE ARE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION IN IRAQ"

2. I assure you and people like you that even if we remove all the GHGs or so called emissions are reduced to whatever levels
EFFECTS OF WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT SAME PACE

CO2 AND GHGs are our friends
there is absolute relationship between population increase and CO2 levels
and I think every school in the world teaches this relationship

DONNOT fool around with basic facts

running after GHGs or playing CARBON CREDITS GAME will not save the world from wraths of warming
It will only EARN CARBON CREDITS
and billions for few and we know we already have billionaire

Keep earning .......

but remember when Iraq was attacked Sadam was murdered and Iraqs suffered
but
US got oil

GLOBAL WARMING will not spare any one
it knows no boundaries....(of developing and so called developed world)
The whole world will be effected
and our children will be the main sufferers because they will
be busy playing CARBON CREDIT GAME (Courtesy:: you know the name this time!!)

Remember
Major civilizations in the past owe their evolution and extinction to global warming in the past

Forget the lessons of the past and you end your existence

Comment #4.1 by: Tudor Vieru on 20 Nov 2009, 09:09 GMT
You are completely and utterly wrong. Saying that there is no connection between GHG and global warming is simply stupid, ignorant, and false. In short, it is a bold lie, that you hope to pass as the truth. There are literally hundred of studies to testify this connection, and only a couple of other saying differently, mostly funded by the people who want to keep destroying our world. So, go read some studies, learn to look pass pre-GHG propaganda, and then write statements like you just did.


Comment #5 by: ritesh arya on 22 Nov 2009, 08:54 GMT


All papers which link GHGs to global warming phenomenon needs a rethought

if bible does not believe in evolution or that earth is round the truth remains the truth

all papers which link the two global warming pollution and GHGs need reexamining

I would just say what you have written applies to you also....

Research on warming and its link with GHGs or pollution is in its infancy but conclusions drawn are just un thinkable.....

its time to built sustainable habitats in geologically sound locations to combat warming.....
playing carbon credits game will only help the so called developed countries fill thier own ppockets without actually fighting the real cause of warming

Enjoy Warming
Man is capable of creating pollution
He is too small to have any impact on warming

this is the CONVENIENT TRUTH





the discussion on the topic ends